The war between Iran and Israel has entered a new and highly uncertain phase following the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader. The 56-year-old son of the slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was confirmed by the Assembly of Experts on Sunday after a decisive vote, taking command of a country in the middle of an active conflict with Israel, under American threat, and dealing with the consequences of multiple strikes on its energy infrastructure.
His father was killed in a joint US-Israeli strike on Tehran on February 28, and the succession process appears to have been managed with notable efficiency by the Islamic Republic’s institutional establishment. The IRGC, armed forces, parliament, and key security officials all issued endorsements within hours of Mojtaba’s appointment, projecting institutional unity at a moment when any sign of internal division could be exploited by adversaries.
Israel did not wait for the new leadership to settle in. Fresh strikes on Iranian regime infrastructure in central Iran were confirmed by the Israeli military on Monday, and Israeli forces also targeted Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian state media showed missiles bearing messages of loyalty to the new supreme leader. Iran’s forces, meanwhile, continued attacks on Gulf states, with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE all reporting incidents.
The economic stakes are enormous. Iran threatened that oil could exceed $200 a barrel if strikes on its energy facilities continued. The United States pledged not to target Iranian energy infrastructure in an effort to stabilize markets. But with Israeli operations continuing and Iranian counterstrikes across the Gulf, the conditions for a sustained energy disruption remain very much in place.
The new phase of the war is defined by a confluence of factors: a new, untested Iranian leader, a US-Israeli alliance that appears coordinated in its strategy, proxy forces on multiple fronts, and oil markets on edge. The trajectory of the conflict will depend heavily on whether Mojtaba Khamenei proves to be a consolidating force or whether the pressures of war expose the limits of his authority. Either way, Iran has entered territory it has never navigated before.